1st ICAI 2020

International Conference on Automotive Industry 2020

Mladá Boleslav, Czech Republic

In addition, the following options were analyzed for each scenario: O1 – resources in the stockpile covering one day production („lean” strategy) O2 – resources in the stockpile covering the five-days production (sustainable safe strategy) O3 – resources in the stockpile covering the ten-days production (“crisis” strategy). It should be noted that in the absence of any distortions the realization of the option I is the cheapest one, but in the event of a major supply disruption, it leads to a complete stoppage of a production (what in a steel industry results in enormous losses).

The break in the supply from the supplier, may be: V1 – variant a = 5 day interruption in supply, V2 – variant b = 10 day interruption in supply, V3 – variant c = 15 day interruption in supply.

The assumed delivery time for groups of individual suppliers are as follows: supplier A – 2 days, supplier B – 10 days and supplier C – 3 days. In all cases the assumptive value of demand for a completed product was constant. Table 2 provides the percentage of loss, with respect to a level of the orders for specific scenarios designated for the quarter of a year, as a practical measure of the vulnerability of the system to the disruptive events.

Table 2: The percentage of production loss for each scenario Scenario I a I b I c II a II b II c

III a III b III c

S1 S2 S3

3,56 5,92 5,92 0 0,39 0,39 0 3,56 7,98 11,78 0 2,43 6,23 0 3,56 6,43 7,30 0 0,88 1,75 0

0

0

0 0,74

0

0

Source: Own elaboration In the next stage of simulation research we assume that the demand for products may vary, and one of our goals is to balance it. It is also assumed that we have sufficient capacity to balance demand, while the lack of raw materials due to various reasons contained in the scenarios may be the limitation. Simulation studies were carried out according to the following selected scenarios: S1 – an increase in demand for 30 days, we do not run the additional supplies, S2 – an increase in demand for 30 days, we run an additional delivery from C after 1 day (transport time 3 day), In the scenarios we take into account all kinds of disturbances – disruptions in the supply chain (type II), as well as events related to the variability of demand (type I). Odd-numbered scenarios address a situation in which only accumulated stock of material (buffer) was used to eliminate interference, while the even numbered scenarios mean the inclusion of the agent’s activities to minimize potential losses.

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