CYIL vol. 12 (2021)

CYIL 12 (2021) THE 50 TH ANNIVERSARY OF THE TREATY ON THE NON-PROLIFERATION… The authors of this same study particularly suggest that “Nuclear States” consider several additional measures, which we underline as follows: “1. Refocus their efforts to exchange information on existing stockpiles and delivery systems, especially those deployed in foreign countries, to prevent misidentification that could prompt retaliatory attack and “6. Ensure a level of independent oversight and control within their domestic nuclear weapons complex in order to prioritize safety considerations and thoroughly investigate operational uncertainties.” 52 The UNIDIR study contributes to an independent analysis of the nuclear risk, which we believe is essential if the political and diplomatic debate to focus on the most important issues and indicate the legal means to provide a full response. As Tim Caughley and Wilfred Wan mention in an UNIDIR study on nuclear risks the nuclear threat remains relevant even after the end of the Cold War and the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Although the number of nuclear weapons has declined to around 15,000, 53 global investment remains active, and the doctrine of deterrence remains central to the military strategy of most states. The UNIDIR report is not the only resource that mentions the nuclear risk as a threat for global security. Humanity continues to face two existential dangers: nuclear war and climate change. We are closer to a possible catastrophe than in the whole of history since the end of the Second World War – “It is 100 seconds to midnight”. 54 In the view of the Council Bulletin of Atomic Scientist , 55 which has set the clock at 100 seconds to zero hour, the world is sleepwalking towards an unstable nuclear scenario. The nuclear arms control borders that helped prevent a nuclear catastrophe in the last 50 years have been dismantled and in 2019 several events make the issue even more delicate: i) the renunciation by the US of the Agreement concluded with Iran, the European Union, Russia and China; ii) the death of the Iranian General in early 2020 executed by the US; iii) the expiry in 2019 of the INF Treaty and the resumption by the US of the installation of weapons that were prohibited under the Treaty; iv) the statement by the US that it does not intend to extend the validity of the NEW START Treaty, which was recently solved by the new administration; v) the opposition by the US, Russia and China to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons, open for signature in 2017, with the US advocating, in the context of the NPT Review Conference process, an initiative called “Creating the Environment for Nuclear Disarmament”, the success of this initiative being dependent on its reception at the NPT Review Conference postponed from 2020 to 2021 and vi) the insufficient progress in the relationship efforts between the US and North Korea. 52 Idem, ibidem. 53 See Borrie (fn 7), p. 11. 54 Science and Security Board of the Bulletin of Atomic Scientist – 2020 Doomsday Clock Statement, “It is 100 seconds to midnight” (available at: https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/current-time/). 55 The Bulletin of Atomic Scientist was founded in 1945 by scientists at the University of Chicago who participated in the Manhattan Project, which developed the first nuclear weapons. Two years after the creation of the Bulletin the Doomsday Clock was created, using the imagery of the apocalypse (midnight) and the language of nuclear explosion (counting down to zero) to convey threats to humanity and the planet. The image was designed by Martyle Langsdorf, married to Alexander Langsdorf Jr, who worked on the Manhattan Project. The decision to change or leave at the same minute the Doomsday Clock is adopted each year by the Bulletin’s Science and Security Council, in consultation with its Board of Sponsors, which includes 13 Nobel laureates. Doomsday Clock is universally recognized as an indicator of the world’s vulnerability to catastrophe from nuclear weapons, and more recently to climate change and technological changes in other areas of the life sciences that could cause irreparable damage. See: https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/.

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