CYIL vol. 12 (2021)

maria manuel meruje CYIL 12 (2021) impossibility of consuming water, the impossibility of returning to work either because it no longer exists or to avoid exposure to radiation. This may imply a radical change in the way of life. 4.2 The UNIDIR Study In 2017, the United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research (UNIDIR) published a study dedicated to understanding the risk of nuclear weapons, mentioning several possibilities that make the use of nuclear weapons a very relevant risk operation, other than for use in the context of war. UNIDIR considers technological development, automated weapons management and control, and new threats from new “actors” as factors that need to be analyzed to mitigate risks. The UNIDIR study focus on the following issues: “– identifies and categorizes some of the sources of risk relating to nuclear weapons, and considers how more precise risk perceptions can drive focused actions towards nuclear disarmament; – offers varying perspectives on overlapping questions related to nuclear weapon risks. This publication does not catalogue all relevant risks, but provides a cross-section of causes encompassing some of the most pertinent in the contemporary landscape; and – suggests risk mitigation steps that the international community could take to address these different risk causes, and underscores the need to prevent the devastating consequences that would follow from a detonation event of any kind .” 50 The main results of the study presented are the following: “1. Uncertainty continues to plague existing understanding of nuclear weapon risks. Variables include its critical role in deterrence doctrine as well as unknowns linked to the interaction of complex systems, the possibility of “beyond design-basis” events, and the impact of stockpile aging . 2. The substantial levels of investment in nuclear weapons and nuclear weapons systems and their modernization have enhanced rather than decreased the likelihood of an intentional or inadvertent detonation event . 3. The secrecy associated with nuclear weapons programs is an obstacle both for assessment and accountability pertaining to risk . 4. Human judgment has been key in identifying and resolving past instances of false alarms. Greater reliance on automated systems can lead to misplaced confidence while introducing new points of vulnerability (“hidden interactions”) . 5. Technological advances suggest a declining need for terrorists or other groups to directly access an actual weapon in order to effect a nuclear detonation event . 6. Risk is an inherent characteristic of nuclear weapons. The only way to eliminate risk completely is to eliminate nuclear weapons completely .” 51

at the Conference on the Humanitarian Impact of Nuclear Weapons (2014) (available at: https://www.bmeia. gv.at/fileadmin/user_upload/Zentrale/Aussenpolitik/Abruestung/HINW14/Presentations/HINW14_S1_ Presentation_Michael_Mills.pdf. 50 See Borrie (fn 7), p. 9. 51 Idem.

322