CYIL vol. 12 (2021)

CYIL 12 (2021) THE 50 TH ANNIVERSARY OF THE TREATY ON THE NON-PROLIFERATION… also identifies genetic modification, global warming, loss of biodiversity, as catastrophic risks of particular concern in the 21st century, because the scale and scope of their effects are unimaginable and at the same time cannot be examined by conventional analytical methods. 41 This results from the fact that there is complete uncertainty about the magnitude and probability of their effects and their value, which may include the total extinction of humanity 42 when nuclear energy is used for war purposes. The risk of using nuclear weapons since the detonation of nuclear weapons in the cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki is focused on the consequences and the catastrophic effects thereof. The risk exists as a function of probability and consequences. 43 This means in the nuclear context the possibility of an accident, a mistake, a non-authorization or an intentional detonation of a nuclear weapon. The efforts to prevent the occurrence of a nuclear catastrophe require an understanding of the factors that can enhance the possibility of such an event and take the actions to prevent them from happening. The consequences from a detonation can be very severe, starting with the impact of the explosion, which generates shock waves and fires, heat 44 and the radiation released 45 that spreads can kill thousands of people instantly, leave many others seriously injured, the territory destroyed, with short, medium and long- term effects of exposure to radiation. 46 The capacity to produce these effects comes from the optimization and efficiency obtained in the perfecting of nuclear weapons by states, which may differ from the capacity of a terrorist group or a state with less nuclear technology. Although the detonation of nuclear weapons in the context of war happened only in the cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, this singularity alone cannot be interpreted as evidence that the probability of a detonation of a nuclear weapon is marginal. The magnitude of the consequences is so great that the mere existence of weapons already contains risk. 47 The complexity of the systems and interactions associated with the simple management and operation of nuclear weapons stockpiles makes accidents inevitable. This was demonstrated throughout the Cold War where false alarm events, nuclear weapons accidents, have been identified several times by states. Moreover, the fact that this subject is treated in secret by states makes the risk assessment analysis and its probability more difficult, which differ from the case of nuclear energy used for peaceful purposes. 48 The humanitarian response to an international disaster caused by the detonation of a nuclear weapon will always involve the need for simultaneous coordination of several teams with different skills, from the medical area, the treatment of thousands of people, the evacuation of many others leading to forced migrations, the inability to replace goods and food in the market because they have high levels of radioactive contamination, 49 the 41 O’MALLEY, Pat Catastrophe: Risk and Response by Richard A. Posner ; Law, Probability and Risk, Volume 4, Issue 3, (Oxford, 2005) 187–189 (available at: https://doi.org/10.1093/lpr/mgi011). 42 BECK, Ulrich, Risk Society, Towards a New Modernity (SAGE, 1992), pp. 19–35. 43 See Borrie (fn 7), pp. 1–11. 44 See : Hiroshima, Nagasaki, and Subsequent Weapons Testing (Updated March 2016), World Nuclear Association, (available at: https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/safety-and-security/radiation-and-health/hiroshima, -nagasaki,-and-subsequent-weapons-testin.aspx). 45 NCRP Report nr. 138, Management of Terrorist Events Involving Radioactive Material , 2001. 46 See: https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/ionizing-radiation-health-effects-and-protective-measures 47 See Borrie (fn 7), p. 13. 48 See Siracusa (fn 32), p. 1. 49 MILLS, Michael J., et al. , Global Famine after a Regional Nuclear War: Overview of recent Research – presented

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