CYIL vol. 12 (2021)

maria manuel meruje

CYIL 12 (2021)

Treaty:

Scope:

Duration:

Observations:

New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START)

A new inspection and verification regime is established, replacing the SORT mechanism. The number of operationally inactive nuclear warheads that can be stockpiled is not limited.

Signed on 8 April, 2010. Entered into force on 5 February, 2011. The United States and Russia agreed on 3 February, 2021, to extend New START five more years.

New START replaced the 1991 START I treaty, which expired December, 2009, and superseded the 2002 SORT Treaty, which terminated when New START entered into force.

The end of the ABM Treaty gave rise to the anxiety of how States would behave in the future absence of this special non-proliferation regime. 37 The INF Treaty even if considered a successful treaty had a setback. In January, 2014, the US informed the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) of its violation by Russia due to testing of SSC-8 / 9M279. The news was received by allies as an arms control compliance issue rather than a security threat. 38 In early 2019, however, President Trump’s administration concluded that the continued violation by Russia of the Treaty with deployment of several SSC-8 battalions, and the still binding US was unsustainable from the point of view of national security and application of the deterrence strategy. Authors Justin V. Anderson and Amy J. Nelson consider the INF Treaty experience relevant in several senses, 39 drawing conclusions for the future: i) the process of revision and dialogue parallel to the Treaty itself by the US with allies to avoid creating divisions; ii) new arms control negotiations should be multilateral so that they can include other additional nuclear states, since as the authors state access to advanced military technologies is not restricted to the superpowers. The circumstances of other nuclear-weapon states that are kept out of such agreements allows the proliferation of nuclear weapons. 40 Faced with these challenges, are the United States and Russia interested in concluding future nuclear arms control agreements that address only their strategic nuclear arsenals? The answer seems to be yes. Indeed, the Treaties appear to be successful. An example of that is the INF Treaty and the New START Treaty, which possibly take lessons learned for the future of nuclear arms control. 4.1 The nuclear risk The detonation on 6 and 9 August, 1945 of two nuclear weapons in the cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki respectively, which historically led to the end of the Second World War, is a landmark demonstration of the capacity for mass destruction that a nuclear weapon can cause when used. Alongside the nuclear risk of a devastating nature, Richard Posner 37 KARP, Aaron The Spread of Ballistic Missiles and the Transformation of Global Security, Nonproliferation Review , fall Winter (2000), pp. 106–122. 38 ANDERSON, Justin V. and Nelson, J. Amy The INF Treaty: A Spectacular, Inflexible, Time-Bound Success, Strategic Studies Quarterly , vol. 13, no. 2 (2019), pp. 90–122 (available: www.jstor.org/stable/26639675). 39 Idem, ibidem. 40 Karp (fn 37) 106. 4. The nuclear weapons risk

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