HUMAN RIGHTS IN THE EUROPEAN CONSTITUTIONAL ORDER

social, political, and security-related, usually influence whether someone is compelled to leave, environmental issues are becoming more significant. 4 While most displacement is internal 5 , experts predict that in the upcoming decades, climate change will have a significant impact on the number of people forced to flee from their country of origin by ‘natural’ disasters 6 such as floods and cyclones, and by slow onset events such as sea level rise, drought, salinization, and desertification. 7 The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (hereinafter referred to as “High Commissioner”) reported that as of the end of June 2024, 122.6 million people worldwide were forcibly displaced, of which almost 38 million were refugees and 13.8 million asylum seekers or other people in need of international protection. 8 Additionally, the International Organization for Migration indicates that by 2050, between 25 million and one billion people will be displaced by climate change 9 , while the number between 150 million and 200 million seems like a reliable estimation. 10 Therefore, this underscores the necessity for legal protection of those displaced outside the borders of their state of origin due to climate change-related events. 1. Aim of the Article and Methodology This article examines the legal framework for protecting individuals fleeing the effects of climate change, focusing on the principle of non-refoulement (non-removal) as a form of subsidiary protection under Article 15 of the Qualification Directive. 11 4 The Government Office for Science. Foresight: Migration and Global Environmental Change, Final Project Report. [online]. London, 2011. [cit. 2024-06-15]. Available at: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/ media/5a74b18840f0b61df4777b6c/11-1116-migration-and-global-environmental-change.pdf. 5 Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre. Global Report on Internal Displacement 2021: Internal Displacement in a Changing Climate. [online]. Geneva: Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, 2021. [cit. 2024-06-15]. Available at: https://disasterdisplacement.org/resource/no-escape-on-the frontlines-of-climate-change-conflict-and-forced-displacement. 6 United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction. The Sendai Framework Terminology on Disaster Risk Reduction. “Disaster”. [online]. 2017. [cit. 2024-06-15]. Available at: https://www.undrr.org/ terminology/disaster. 7 Platform on Disaster Displacement. Climate change, conflict and displacement: Understanding the nexus Follow-up to the Nansen Initiative. [online]. 2018 [cit. 2024-06-15]. Available at: https:// disasterdisplacement.org/news-events/climate-change-conflict-and-displacement-understanding-the nexus/?utm_source=com. 8 UNHCR. UNHCR’s Mid-Year Trends 2024 . [online]. Geneve: UNHCR, 9 October 2024. [cit. 2024 06-17]. Available at: UNHCR’s Mid-Year Trends 2024. 9 International Organization for Migration. Migration and Climate Change. [online]. Geneva: IOM, 2008, p. 31 [cit. 2024-06-15]. Available at: https://publications.iom.int/system/files/pdf/mrs-31_en.pdf?com. 10 Stern, N. H. The economics of climate change: the Stern review. London: Cambridge University Press, 2007. ISBN 978-0-521-86356-7. 11 European Union. Directive 2011/95/EU of the European Parliament and of the Council of 13 December 2011 on standards for the qualification of third-country nationals or stateless persons as beneficiaries of international protection, for a uniform status for refugees or for persons eligible for subsidiary protection, and for the content of the protection granted (recast). L 337/9, 20 December 2011.

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