1st ICAI 2020

International Conference on Automotive Industry 2020

Mladá Boleslav, Czech Republic

in individual years. This can be estimated by multiplying the average consumption of electrical energy of one electric vehicle by the estimated number of electric vehicles on the road in a given year. As a last step, the resulting figures will be compared with the generally accepted expectations for the overall production and consumption of electrical energy in the Czech Republic.

3. Problem Solution

3.1 The Estimation of the Number of Passenger Cars in the Czech Republic The first step in our model is estimating the outlook for growth in the total number of passenger cars registered in the Czech Republic, that is, the growth of the overall vehicle fleet in the country. For that prediction, we will use the following assumptions: • The growth in the number of passenger cars in the Czech Republic (the vehicle fleet) averaged 3.2% per annum in the period 1990-2019. New registrations of passenger cars increased by 5.0% per annum on average from 2004 to 2019 (Car Importers Association, 2020, b; Šaroch et al., 2019); • If that growth continues through the year 2040, there will be 11.6 million passenger cars on the road in the Czech Republic, more than twice the current number today; • According to the middle variant of projections by the Czech Statistics Office, the population of the Czech Republic will grow by only 0.9% by 2040, to 10.74 million inhabitants (Czech Statistical Office, 2018); • By our own estimate, demand for cars in the Czech Republic will grow as Czechs become more affluent and cars become more affordable for them. The number of automobiles per family will increase. Business firms, which already account for three quarters of new passenger car registrations, will also increase the size of their fleets of automobiles; • Some factors will impact the sale of new cars negatively, such as the growth in auto sharing schemes and the rise of new generations (the Millennials and Generation Z) that according to recent surveys are not so willing to own their own cars. On a longer time horizon, the arrival of autonomous self-driving vehicles and associated, more accessible taxi services will have an influence. If the number of passenger cars in the Czech Republic grows on average by two percent per year through 2040, in that year there will be 9.1 million passenger cars on the road, about 62 percent more than today. If the number of passenger cars grows by only one percent per year, there still would be 7.4 million cars, or 32% more than today, on the Czech highways in 2040.

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