1st ICAI 2020

International Conference on Automotive Industry 2020

Mladá Boleslav, Czech Republic

Beginning in 2020, however, automobile manufacturers in the EU will have to abide by strict limits on emissions of carbon dioxide. The relevant EU directive 2019/6311 (European Commision, 2019) generally provides that car manufacturers must supply the European market with new passenger cars whose average emissions do not exceed a limit of 95 grams of CO 2 emitted per kilometre of travel (a limit of 147 g CO 2 / km is specified for light commercial vehicles). In 2020, every manufacturer will have to ensure that 95 percent of the personal cars it produces fulfil this requirement. Moreover, in 2021, emissions will be evaluated using new, stricter standards (the Worldwide Harmonized Light Vehicle Test Procedure (WLTP) rather than the older New European Driving Cycle (NEDC)). For that purpose, every automobile sold with emissions of CO 2 less than 50 g/km (such as vehicles using hydrogen fuel, fully electric vehicles and rechargeable hybrids) will count as two vehicles sold in 2020, as 1.66 vehicles the next year and as 1.33 vehicles in 2022. The emission limits will be further tightened in 2025 (15% lower than in 2021, to 80.75 g CO 2 /km), and again in 2030, when the emission limit will be set to 59.38 g CO 2 /km (37.5% lower than in 2021). The average emissions of newly registered passenger cars in the EU were 120.4 g CO 2 /km in 2018 (European Environment Agency, 2019). That figure may have been influenced by efforts of auto producers to reduce their inventories of cars with higher emissions (and consequently higher horsepower) at the last minute and by consumers’ reluctance to purchase diesel-powered cars (which have lower emissions of CO 2 than gasoline engines) after the Dieselgate affair. Most important is the continuing preference by European customers for large, powerful (and therefore more carbon- emitting) sport-utility vehicles. This year, auto manufacturers have begun to add cars with alternative fuels to their product lines in order to abide by the strict emission limits and avoid paying steep fines. Practically all of the world’s automobile producers have introduced electric cars in the past few years. They have invested tens of billions of dollars into hybrid and fully electric vehicles. From 2020 they will be seeking to sell them in ever increasing numbers to their customers. 2. Problem Formulation and Methodology The aim of this paper is to estimate the number of passenger electric cars that will be operated in the Czech Republic over the next twenty years (in 2030 and 2040) and at the same time to predict the impact of their operation on electricity consumption in the Czech Republic. 2.1 Model and Data In order to estimate the outlook for sales of electric cars in the Czech Republic, including battery electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids, and the potential share they will attain in the total fleet of automobiles in the country, it is first necessary to estimate the growth potential of automobiles in the Czech Republic through the year 2040. It will be essential to predict the share of new registrations and the share of the entire automobile fleet in the Czech Republic that will be held by electric vehicles. It will then be possible to determine the consumption of electrical energy by those vehicles

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